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Backing insurgency ukraine11/24/2023 ![]() In this scenario, we forecast the possibility-seen as remote in early March-of an unexpectedly strong Ukrainian resistance forcing Russia to execute a swift withdrawal from Ukraine. So here, we reexamine our four original scenarios and suggest how we might amend them in light of new developments in Ukraine: Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro If the scenarios are built on faulty assumptions, or if they are poorly calibrated to events on the ground, they will not be useful for policymakers seeking to develop coherent strategies. Since then, Russia’s initial offensive has collapsed, transatlantic allies and partners have become bolder in their actions, and NATO appears poised to admit Finland and Sweden.įour months later, we find it important to revisit our thinking: Foresight is a strategic exercise that requires returning to the original evidence the assumptions and scenarios should be modified in accordance with actual events. At that time, we noted that several factors suggested it was turning in the West’s favor, including popular international support for Ukraine, Kyiv’s determination to fight, and newfound transatlantic solidarity. In early March, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, we proposed four scenarios for how the war might unfold. In this latest installment, Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimmino revisit their March forecasts for four different scenarios. ![]() For months, our foresight experts have been projecting how the war could break out and, once it did, how it could unfold next. ![]() If ever there has been a conflict that underscored the urgent need in the policy world for strategic foresight, it’s the one currently raging in Ukraine. It’s the war that was both eminently predictable and roundly unpredicted.
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